Determinants of Smallholder Farmers’ Crop Productivity amidst Rainfall Variability Concerns in Chongwe District, Zambia.

Abstract

Climate change is a global challenge brought about by accelerated anthropogenic activities, leading to an increase in the presence of greenhouses gases in our atmosphere. Its impacts are exacerbated in climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture. Majority of Zambia’s small holder farmers are defendant on rainfed agriculture making them vulnerable to impacts of climate change and variability. This study was aimed at assessing the determinants of smallholder farmers’ crop productivity amidst variability in rainfall received in Chongwe District. Convergent research design was adopted as an approach that involves the collection of qualitative and quantitative data at the same time of the same phenomena. Five study sites (villages) in Chongwe were purposively sampled, namely; Mudenda, Mutakama, Mulwila, Kalilika and Kangalangala. The total number of respondents for this study was 38 people which comprised of three (3) key informants and 35 smallholder farmers. The key informants included respondents from the Zambia Meteorological Department, Chongwe District Agriculture Office and a Traditional Leader. The trend analysis revealed that rainfall in Chongwe District has been decreasing at an annual rate of 9.60mm between 2000 and 2020. Even though the reduction is not significant (p = 0.181) the consistent reduction in rainfall trends indicates a concern that should move smallholder farmers to devise adaptation measures to combat a decrease in rainfall. Further, maize yields had been decreasing at an annual rate of 0.012 ton/ha between 2010 and 2019 which was not statistically significant (p=0.812). An assessment of social factors that could influence maize productivity revealed household size (r = 0.754; p = 0.012) and farming experience (r = 0.344; p = 0.043) as significant factors that affected maize productivity at household level in Chongwe. The research therefore concluded that Chongwe district has been experiencing decreased rainfall trends and maize productivity which increases smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to impacts of climate change. The study recommended that interventions should focus on increasing the resilience of smallholder farmers in Chongwe through increased climate change awareness and reduced vulnerability through household income diversification and public social capital mechanisms.